In its last eight games as a double-digit favorite against FBS opponents, Florida has covered only once and lost twice outright. In those four games, Iowa has been outscored 161-41 and hasn’t scored more than 14 points in any game. Since beating Ohio State 55-24 as a 20.5-point underdog in 2017, Iowa has been a double-digit dog four times. Those three teams are Notre Dame (4-0), USC (3-0) and Washington (3-0). Only three teams this season have scored at least 40 points in each game and won each game by at least 21 points. This is the first time under Ryan Day that Ohio State will play a regular season game with a spread of six points or fewer. The Fighting Irish have won six of the previous seven, including two wins over Top-5 Clemson teams. This is the eighth time in the last 10 years Notre Dame has been a home underdog. Alabama is currently a 6.5-point favorite over Ole Miss. In the three games at Bryant-Denny that fall into this mold, the Tide beat Georgia in 2020, lost to LSU in 2019 and lost two weeks ago to Texas. The Tide is just 3-6 in those nine games (2-7 ATS).

Since 2016, Alabama has been favored by seven points or fewer nine times. Oklahoma State is currently a 3.5-point dog at Iowa State. Mike Gundy’s Cowboys won 22 of them and have gone 19-6-3 ATS. Since 2015, Oklahoma State has had 28 games where the spread landed between -4 and +4. Included in that stretch are two games vs. The Cyclones are 6-21 in those games, with losses in each of the last eight and 11 of the last 12.

Iowa State has had 27 games with a spread between -4 and +4 under Matt Campbell. teams which finished the season ranked or are currently ranked since the 2020 CFP Semifinal loss to Ohio State. If you include Duke from this season, Clemson is 2-8 vs. Last year, TCU won at Baylor 29-28 as a 2.5-point favorite. Four of the previous five won, with the lone exception being Michigan State at Purdue in 2021. This is the sixth time in the CFP era that a Top-5 team has been favored by a FG or less against an unranked opponent. The other instance came in 2016 when the Tigers were a one-point dog to Lamar Jackson’s Louisville team and won a great game 42-36. This is just the second time in the last 66 home games that Clemson is an underdog.

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